Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD

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14 Jun 2023
| Highlight paper
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
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22 Feb 2023
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Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study
Jiajun Wu, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 185–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023, 2023
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26 Jan 2023
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Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, 2023
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08 Dec 2022
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Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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24 Nov 2022
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Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
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01 Jun 2022
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Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century
Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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18 May 2022
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Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes
Marco Hofmann, Claudia Volosciuk, Martin Dubrovský, Douglas Maraun, and Hans R. Schultz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 911–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, 2022
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16 May 2022
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Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
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13 Apr 2022
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Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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13 Apr 2022
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Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau
Bojie Fu, Xutong Wu, Zhuangzhuang Wang, Xilin Wu, and Shuai Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 795–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-795-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-795-2022, 2022
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21 Feb 2022
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Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching into the European river network
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
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02 Feb 2022
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Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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22 Dec 2021
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Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, 2021
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09 Dec 2021
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Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
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06 Dec 2021
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Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates
Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, 2021
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15 Nov 2021
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Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
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15 Oct 2021
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Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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10 May 2021
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First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
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05 May 2021
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Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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14 Apr 2021
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Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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30 Mar 2021
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Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services
Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, 2021
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26 Feb 2021
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A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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11 Feb 2021
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Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
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04 Feb 2021
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A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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02 Feb 2021
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Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021
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06 Jan 2021
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Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
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21 Dec 2020
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Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020
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16 Dec 2020
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Biases in the albedo sensitivity to deforestation in CMIP5 models and their impacts on the associated historical radiative forcing
Quentin Lejeune, Edouard L. Davin, Grégory Duveiller, Bas Crezee, Ronny Meier, Alessandro Cescatti, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020, 2020
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13 Nov 2020
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Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, 2020
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22 Oct 2020
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Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020
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16 Sep 2020
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An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles
Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 807–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020, 2020
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27 Aug 2020
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Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation
Mohammad Shamsudduha and Richard G. Taylor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-755-2020, 2020
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19 Aug 2020
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ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments
Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, 2020
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17 Aug 2020
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Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020
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04 Aug 2020
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Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020
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03 Aug 2020
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Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
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24 Jul 2020
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Impact of environmental changes and land management practices on wheat production in India
Shilpa Gahlot, Tzu-Shun Lin, Atul K. Jain, Somnath Baidya Roy, Vinay K. Sehgal, and Rajkumar Dhakar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 641–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020, 2020
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25 Jun 2020
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The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020
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08 Apr 2020
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Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, 2020
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20 Mar 2020
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Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020
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25 Feb 2020
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Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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11 Feb 2020
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A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems
Matias Heino, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Christoph Müller, Toshichika Iizumi, and Matti Kummu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, 2020
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17 Jan 2020
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ESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, 2020
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04 Dec 2019
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Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change
Calum Brown, Bumsuk Seo, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019, 2019
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13 Nov 2019
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Evaluating climate emulation: fundamental impulse testing of simple climate models
Adria K. Schwarber, Steven J. Smith, Corinne A. Hartin, Benjamin Aaron Vega-Westhoff, and Ryan Sriver
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019, 2019
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07 Nov 2019
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Meeting climate targets by direct CO2 injections: what price would the ocean have to pay?
Fabian Reith, Wolfgang Koeve, David P. Keller, Julia Getzlaff, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 711–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, 2019
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15 Oct 2019
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Modeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Jonathan C. Doelman, Peter Baas, Christoph Müller, Sibyll Schaphoff, Elke Stehfest, and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 617–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, 2019
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14 Jun 2019
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Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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24 Apr 2019
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ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michel Crucifix, and Dmitry M. Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019, 2019
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21 Feb 2019
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The role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extension
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, 2019
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04 Jan 2019
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ESD Ideas: Photoelectrochemical carbon removal as negative emission technology
Matthias M. May and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019, 2019
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05 Dec 2018
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Light absorption by marine cyanobacteria affects tropical climate mean state and variability
Hanna Paulsen, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Katharina D. Six, and Irene Stemmler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1283–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, 2018
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12 Nov 2018
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ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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06 Nov 2018
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Cascading transitions in the climate system
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
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12 Oct 2018
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The climate of a retrograde rotating Earth
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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21 Sep 2018
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Diurnal land surface energy balance partitioning estimated from the thermodynamic limit of a cold heat engine
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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30 Aug 2018
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The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance
Matthias Aengenheyster, Qing Yi Feng, Frederick van der Ploeg, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1085–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, 2018
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30 Aug 2018
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Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe
Martha M. Vogel, Jakob Zscheischler, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, 2018
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29 Aug 2018
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Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 °C global warming target
Jie Chen, Yujie Liu, Tao Pan, Yanhua Liu, Fubao Sun, and Quansheng Ge
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1097–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018, 2018
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21 Aug 2018
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Improving the representation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in climate models: impact of a new parameterization for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)
Andrés Navarro, Raúl Moreno, and Francisco J. Tapiador
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1045–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1045-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1045-2018, 2018
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17 Aug 2018
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A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates
Marcus C. Sarofim and Michael R. Giordano
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1013–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1013-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1013-2018, 2018
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23 Jul 2018
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Using network theory and machine learning to predict El Niño
Peter D. Nooteboom, Qing Yi Feng, Cristóbal López, Emilio Hernández-García, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 969–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-969-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-969-2018, 2018
Short summary
04 Jul 2018
| Highlight paper
Moisture transport and Antarctic sea ice: austral spring 2016 event
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, 2018
Short summary
21 Jun 2018
| Highlight paper
Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
Short summary
14 Jun 2018
| Highlight paper
On the social dynamics of moisture recycling
Patrick W. Keys and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 829–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018, 2018
Short summary
13 Jun 2018
| Highlight paper
Hazards of decreasing marine oxygen: the near-term and millennial-scale benefits of meeting the Paris climate targets
Gianna Battaglia and Fortunat Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, 2018
Short summary
07 Jun 2018
| Highlight paper
Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like terra-planet
Sirisha Kalidindi, Christian H. Reick, Thomas Raddatz, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 739–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, 2018
Short summary
06 Jun 2018
| Highlight paper
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, 2018
18 May 2018
| Highlight paper
Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoon
Camilla Mathison, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, and Andrew J. Challinor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, 2018
Short summary
17 May 2018
| Highlight paper
Analytically tractable climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing
Steven J. Lade, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, John M. Anderies, Christian Beer, Sarah E. Cornell, Thomas Gasser, Jon Norberg, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, and Will Steffen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, 2018
Short summary
13 Mar 2018
| Highlight paper
Thermodynamics of saline and fresh water mixing in estuaries
Zhilin Zhang and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 241–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-241-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-241-2018, 2018
Short summary
20 Dec 2017
| Highlight paper
Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests
Yannick Le Page, Douglas Morton, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, José Miguel Cardoso Pereira, George Hurtt, and Ghassem Asrar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1237–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017, 2017
Short summary
11 Dec 2017
| Highlight paper
Structure and functioning of the acid–base system in the Baltic Sea
Karol Kuliński, Bernd Schneider, Beata Szymczycha, and Marcin Stokowski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1107–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1107-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1107-2017, 2017
Short summary
08 Nov 2017
| Highlight paper
Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models – an overview of techniques and approaches
Finn Müller-Hansen, Maja Schlüter, Michael Mäs, Jonathan F. Donges, Jakob J. Kolb, Kirsten Thonicke, and Jobst Heitzig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 977–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, 2017
Short summary
25 Sep 2017
| Highlight paper
An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
Short summary
19 Sep 2017
| Highlight paper
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G. Strand, Lei Lin, Reto Knutti, and Jean Francois Lamarque
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, 2017
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18 Jul 2017
| Highlight paper
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary
11 Jul 2017
| Highlight paper
River logjams cause frequent large-scale forest die-off events in southwestern Amazonia
Umberto Lombardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 565–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-565-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-565-2017, 2017
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05 Jul 2017
| Highlight paper
Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, 2017
Short summary
30 Jun 2017
| Highlight paper
The importance of terrestrial weathering changes in multimillennial recovery of the global carbon cycle: a two-dimensional perspective
Marc-Olivier Brault, H. Damon Matthews, and Lawrence A. Mysak
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 455–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-455-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-455-2017, 2017
Short summary
18 May 2017
| Highlight paper
The polar amplification asymmetry: role of Antarctic surface height
Marc Salzmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 323–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-323-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-323-2017, 2017
Short summary
10 Apr 2017
| Highlight paper
Accounting for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metrics
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
Short summary
27 Mar 2017
| Highlight paper
Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Fabian Martinez, Zahra Kalantari, and Alberto Viglione
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 225–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-225-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-225-2017, 2017
Short summary
01 Nov 2016
| Highlight paper
Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP
Veronika Eyring, Peter J. Gleckler, Christoph Heinze, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, V. Balaji, Eric Guilyardi, Sylvie Joussaume, Stephan Kindermann, Bryan N. Lawrence, Gerald A. Meehl, Mattia Righi, and Dean N. Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 813–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, 2016
Short summary
29 Aug 2016
| Highlight paper
Why CO2 cools the middle atmosphere – a consolidating model perspective
Helge F. Goessling and Sebastian Bathiany
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 697–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-697-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
23 Aug 2016
| Highlight paper
Hemispherically asymmetric volcanic forcing of tropical hydroclimate during the last millennium
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, 2016
Short summary
28 Jun 2016
| Highlight paper
Spatial and temporal variations in plant water-use efficiency inferred from tree-ring, eddy covariance and atmospheric observations
Stefan C. Dekker, Margriet Groenendijk, Ben B. B. Booth, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 525–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016, 2016
Short summary
10 May 2016
| Highlight paper
Alluvial plain dynamics in the southern Amazonian foreland basin
Umberto Lombardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 453–467, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-453-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-453-2016, 2016
Short summary
22 Apr 2016
| Highlight paper
Revolutions in energy input and material cycling in Earth history and human history
Timothy M. Lenton, Peter-Paul Pichler, and Helga Weisz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 353–370, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-353-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-353-2016, 2016
Short summary
13 Apr 2016
| Highlight paper
Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems
Mark S. Williamson, Sebastian Bathiany, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016, 2016
Short summary
11 Mar 2016
| Highlight paper
Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data
Jiří Mikšovský, Eva Holtanová, and Petr Pišoft
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016, 2016
Short summary
10 Mar 2016
| Highlight paper
Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
Short summary
13 Jul 2015
| Highlight paper
Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
Short summary
08 Oct 2013
| Highlight paper
Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems
S. Ostberg, W. Lucht, S. Schaphoff, and D. Gerten
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 347–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013, 2013
16 Sep 2013
| Highlight paper
The impact of nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the estimated terrestrial carbon balance and warming of land use change over the last 156 yr
Q. Zhang, A. J. Pitman, Y. P. Wang, Y. J. Dai, and P. J. Lawrence
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-333-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-333-2013, 2013
02 Sep 2013
| Highlight paper
Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes
M. C. MacCracken, H.-J. Shin, K. Caldeira, and G. A. Ban-Weiss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 301–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-301-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-301-2013, 2013
28 Aug 2013
| Highlight paper
Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models
A. Menon, A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, 2013
31 Jul 2013
| Highlight paper
Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation
K. Becker, V. Wulfmeyer, T. Berger, J. Gebel, and W. Münch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 237–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-237-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-237-2013, 2013
08 Apr 2013
| Highlight paper
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models
B. B. B. Booth, D. Bernie, D. McNeall, E. Hawkins, J. Caesar, C. Boulton, P. Friedlingstein, and D. M. H. Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013
23 Jan 2013
| Highlight paper
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties
M. Perrette, F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, and M. Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013
26 Nov 2012
| Highlight paper
Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations
A. J. Pitman, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, F. B. Avila, L. V. Alexander, J.-P. Boisier, V. Brovkin, C. Delire, F. Cruz, M. G. Donat, V. Gayler, B. van den Hurk, C. Reick, and A. Voldoire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 213–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-213-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-213-2012, 2012
20 Nov 2012
| Highlight paper
Urbanization suitability maps: a dynamic spatial decision support system for sustainable land use
M. Cerreta and P. De Toro
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 157–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-157-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-157-2012, 2012
14 Nov 2012
| Highlight paper
Technology and human purpose: the problem of solids transport on the Earth's surface
P. K. Haff
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 149–156, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-149-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-149-2012, 2012
06 Jun 2012
| Highlight paper
Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models
H. Schmidt, K. Alterskjær, D. Bou Karam, O. Boucher, A. Jones, J. E. Kristjánsson, U. Niemeier, M. Schulz, A. Aaheim, F. Benduhn, M. Lawrence, and C. Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-63-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-63-2012, 2012

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