ESD cover
Chief editors: Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, Axel Kleidon & Gabriele Messori
eISSN: ESD 2190-4987, ESDD 2190-4995

Earth System Dynamics (ESD) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of studies that take an interdisciplinary perspective on the functioning of the Earth system and global change. The overall behaviour of the Earth system is strongly shaped by the interactions among its various component systems, such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, oceans, pedosphere, and the lithosphere, but also by life and increasingly by human activity. ESD solicits contributions that investigate these various interactions and the underlying mechanisms, ways how these can be conceptualized, modelled, and quantified, predictions of the overall system behaviour to global changes, and the impacts for its habitability, humanity, and the future functioning of the Earth system in the Anthropocene.

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ESD is indexed in the Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, etc. We refrain from displaying the journal metrics prominently on the landing page since citation metrics used in isolation do not describe importance, impact, or quality of a journal. However, these metrics can be found on the journal metrics page.

Highlight articles

16 Oct 2025
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025, 2025
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08 Oct 2025
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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02 Oct 2025
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025
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30 Sep 2025
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025
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15 Sep 2025
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
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Recent papers

17 Oct 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1779–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025, 2025
Short summary
16 Oct 2025
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, 2025
Short summary
16 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
15 Oct 2025
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1723–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025, 2025
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15 Oct 2025
Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment
Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1711–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025, 2025
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News

02 Oct 2025 Press Release: Antarctic Sea ice emerges as key predictor of accelerated ocean warming

A groundbreaking study published today in ESD provides a critical and previously underestimated connection between Antarctic sea ice, cloud cover, and global warming. This research is important because it shows that a greater extent of Antarctic sea ice today, compared to climate model predictions, means we can expect more significant global warming in the coming decades. Please read more.

02 Oct 2025 Press Release: Antarctic Sea ice emerges as key predictor of accelerated ocean warming

A groundbreaking study published today in ESD provides a critical and previously underestimated connection between Antarctic sea ice, cloud cover, and global warming. This research is important because it shows that a greater extent of Antarctic sea ice today, compared to climate model predictions, means we can expect more significant global warming in the coming decades. Please read more.

13 May 2025 ESD editor Kai Kornhuber received the 2025 Climate Division Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award

We are glad to announce that ESD Editor Kai Kornhuber received the 2025 Climate Division Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award. The ESD editorial board congratulates Kai for this achievement.

13 May 2025 ESD editor Kai Kornhuber received the 2025 Climate Division Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award

We are glad to announce that ESD Editor Kai Kornhuber received the 2025 Climate Division Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award. The ESD editorial board congratulates Kai for this achievement.

23 Apr 2025 High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

The authors investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. They find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. Read more.

23 Apr 2025 High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

The authors investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. They find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. Read more.

Notice on the current situation in Ukraine

To show our support for Ukraine, all fees for papers from authors (first or corresponding authors) affiliated to Ukrainian institutions are automatically waived, regardless if these papers are co-authored by scientists affiliated to Russian and/or Belarusian institutions. The only exception will be if the corresponding author or first contact (contractual partner of Copernicus) are from a Russian and/or Belarusian institution, in that case the APCs are not waived.

In accordance with current European restrictions, Copernicus Publications does not step into business relations with and issue APC-invoices (articles processing charges) to Russian and Belarusian institutions. The peer-review process and scientific exchange of our journals including preprint posting is not affected. However, these restrictions require that the first contact (contractual partner of Copernicus) has an affiliation and invoice address outside Russia or Belarus.